‘We May Do Another Little Epic Fury’: Ten Days Out, Who Speaks for the President on Iran?

President Donald J. Trump, official 2025 presidential portrait. Photo: Daniel Torok / The White House (public domain, via Wikimedia Commons).

Sixteen days ago, President Donald Trump put it in writing: “We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.” That was his Oct. 8 Truth Social post, as reported by CNBC and Al Jazeera.

On Friday night in Fort Myers, Florida, the same president told a rally crowd: “We may do another little Epic Fury.” Epic Fury is the military’s name for the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran that began Feb. 28, and Reuters noted that he did not elaborate.

Fuller remarks carried by NDTV show the line came with a condition attached: “We may do another little Epic Fury, or they’ll agree. If they’re smart, they’ll just say, let’s get down to business.” He did not say what Tehran would have to agree to.

Those two statements can be reconciled. A threat is not a strike, and a president chasing a deal has every reason to keep the ayatollahs guessing. But by Saturday morning the guessing was no longer confined to Tehran. In roughly 24 hours, Americans picked up three more signals from three different corners of their own government, and they did not all point the same way.

An ambassador says ‘absolutely’

Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey, who has no direct role in Iran policy, went on a podcast with Mario Nawfal and said: “Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely. President Trump is very clear. He’s open and available and accessible to a deal, and we’ve been at the table for months and months and months,” according to NDTV.

Trump brushed it off: “That was my ambassador? He’s a pretty powerful man, I guess. If that’s the case, I don’t know anything about it.” Iran International reported that the president distanced himself from any talk of a weekend strike.

The carriers are rearming

On Saturday, The Wall Street Journal published a dispatch from aboard the USS George Washington in the Arabian Sea. U.S. officials told the paper that American warships are preparing for an escalation in case Trump opts for a fresh round of attacks “in the coming weeks,” and Journal reporters watched a significant replenishment of munitions, including a large delivery of standoff land-attack missiles.

A summary of the Journal report in the Arab Times said the deliveries also included bunker-buster bombs built for hardened targets, and cautioned that the preparations do not mean a new attack has been authorized.

That lines up with New York Times reporting, summarized by Iran International and The Jerusalem Post, that U.S. and Israeli planners have drawn up a short, intense campaign for after the Nov. 3 midterms, aimed at Iran’s missile and drone arsenal, nuclear sites and energy infrastructure.

The spy chief’s memo

Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned Secretary of State Marco Rubio in an unclassified memo dated Oct. 23 that lethal Iranian plots against Americans have reached “advanced stages” in the Middle East and some other countries, Axios first reported. The memo did not name targets or countries, NBC News reported.

The State Department has already cut staffing at some Mideast embassies over the threat. NDTV reported non-emergency staff were ordered out of the embassy in Riyadh and the consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran, with reductions following in the UAE, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan.

Tehran’s reply

Two senior Iranian security officials told Reuters that Tehran has plans to hit undersea communications cables in the Gulf if the U.S. and Israel attack again. “If Iran is attacked, there will be no more red lines … from undersea cables to military bases, including covert ones. US should not play with fire,” one said, per NDTV’s account.

The Revolutionary Guards’ navy also claimed two supertankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran International reported. Trump, for his part, accused Iran on Thursday of fabricating reports of tanker attacks and mines to drive up oil prices, The Jerusalem Post reported.

The bill lands in Indiana

None of this stays overseas. AAA put Indiana’s average for a gallon of regular at $4.02 on Saturday, up from $3.87 in AAA’s Oct. 22 weekly report. That same report said crude was nearing $100 a barrel amid instability in the Strait of Hormuz and that this month is on pace to be the most expensive October ever at the pump. A year earlier the national average was about $3.07.

Words move those numbers. After Trump told reporters on Oct. 7 that renewed strikes before the election were under consideration, Brent crude rose more than 4% the next day to above $104 a barrel, CNBC reported. The no-strike pledge followed that same day.

The case for the hard line

The administration’s defenders have an argument, and it deserves a hearing. Iran International’s analysis contends the naval blockade, not the airstrikes, is doing the real damage. Central Command says it has stopped $25 billion in Iranian oil exports, and U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz told the Financial Times the Navy can hold the blockade for the foreseeable future. Trump himself said Friday the U.S. could end the war quickly, but questioned whether it should seek a swift finish or let the conflict wind down.

Pressure on a regime that, by the DNI’s own account, is plotting to kill Americans is not the issue. The issue is the gap between the written promise voters received on Oct. 8 and what has followed: an ambassador with no Iran portfolio forecasting weekend strikes, a rally line with no terms attached, and carrier crews loading bunker-busters just in case.

Unanswered

• Does the Oct. 8 pledge still stand, word for word, through Nov. 3?

• Was Ambassador Barrack speaking for the administration, or only for himself?

• What, specifically, would Iran have to “agree” to in order to head off another round?

• If the post-election campaign described in the Times reporting goes forward, will the White House bring it to Congress first?

Ten days remain before the date the president himself circled. Until the White House answers those questions in one voice, Hoosiers are left reading Iran policy the way they read the weather: by watching the sign at the corner gas station.

Written by Hoosiers, for Hoosiers.