Fort Wayne’s Congressional Race Takes Shape: Stutzman Defends Deep-Red 3rd District Against Kelly Thompson

IN-03

Hoosier Enquirer | Indiana Politics | August 2026

FORT WAYNE, Ind. — Northeast Indiana voters will decide this November whether Republican Congressman Marlin Stutzman receives another term in Washington or whether Democrat Kelly Thompson can pull off what would amount to one of Indiana's largest congressional upsets.

The contest is for Indiana's 3rd Congressional District, the sprawling northeastern Indiana seat anchored by Fort Wayne. It includes all of Adams, Allen, Blackford, DeKalb, Huntington, LaGrange, Noble, Steuben, Wells and Whitley counties, along with portions of Jay and Kosciusko counties. The district contains roughly 775,000 residents and combines Indiana's second-largest city with some of the state's most reliably Republican rural communities.

The November 3 general election currently features Stutzman, Thompson and independent write-in candidate Phillip Beachy.

For Thompson, the central challenge is unmistakable: this is Republican territory, and it isn't particularly close.

Stutzman Comes Into November as the Heavy Favorite

Stutzman is hardly a newcomer to Northeast Indiana politics.

The Howe farmer and businessman first represented the 3rd District from 2010 through 2017. He left Congress after unsuccessfully seeking the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in 2016 and eventually returned to the House after Jim Banks vacated the district to pursue his successful Senate campaign.

Stutzman won the 2024 general election with approximately 65 percent of the vote, defeating Democrat Kiley Adolph. The district's current partisan rating is approximately R+16, making it among Indiana's safest Republican congressional seats.

His first test of 2026 came from inside his own party.

Fort Wayne Republican and Army veteran Jon Kenworthy challenged Stutzman in the May GOP primary. Stutzman survived that challenge comfortably. In Allen County alone, official results showed Stutzman receiving 15,649 votes to Kenworthy's 6,431.

That leaves Stutzman entering the fall campaign without the internal Republican battle that might have complicated his reelection.

His campaign has emphasized inflation, economic growth, conservative social policies and opposition to what Stutzman describes as corruption within federal bureaucracies. Stutzman has also made education and cultural issues part of his political message.

Kelly Thompson Offers Democrats a Different Argument

Democrat Kelly Thompson faces a very different political equation.

Thompson, a business owner who has also been involved with local youth, effectively cleared the Democratic field and entered the general election without a contested May primary. She has emphasized protecting farmland, reducing health-care costs, increasing housing affordability and legalizing cannabis.

Her campaign's broader argument is that Northeast Indiana families need a representative focused more directly on household economics and local concerns.

But Thompson must overcome considerably more than Stutzman's incumbency.

She must overcome the political DNA of the district itself.

Fort Wayne gives Democrats a substantial urban electorate, but the congressional district extends far beyond the city. Auburn, Angola, Bluffton, Decatur, Huntington, Kendallville and numerous smaller communities surround Fort Wayne within a congressional district containing a substantial agricultural and rural population.

The result is a district that has consistently favored Republicans by large margins.

Money Is Another Stutzman Advantage

Campaign finance provides another measure of the candidates' very different starting positions.

According to federal campaign-finance figures compiled through June 30, Stutzman's campaign reported approximately $840,000 in total receipts, compared with approximately $136,000 for Thompson.

Money doesn't cast ballots, but that disparity matters.

It gives Stutzman considerably greater capacity for advertising, mail, voter identification and turnout operations as the campaign enters its final months. Thompson's challenge is therefore not merely persuading voters. She has to generate enough attention to make voters believe there is a competitive race in the first place.

That could require a strong performance in Fort Wayne combined with unusually favorable Democratic results elsewhere in Allen County and enough crossover or independent support in traditionally Republican counties to substantially reduce Stutzman's normal margins.

That is a difficult electoral map.

Fort Wayne Is Where the Race Becomes Interesting

If there is a political battlefield inside the district, it is Fort Wayne.

The city creates an unusual contrast with the district surrounding it. Candidates can discuss housing affordability, redevelopment, crime, wages, health care and economic development in Fort Wayne and then drive relatively short distances into communities where agriculture, federal regulation, energy prices, gun rights and cultural issues can dominate political conversations.

That makes the 3rd District more politically interesting than its Republican advantage might initially suggest.

Thompson doesn't necessarily need to transform rural Northeast Indiana into Democratic territory. She does, however, need to avoid being overwhelmed there while producing an enormous Democratic vote from Fort Wayne and its more competitive precincts.

Stutzman's task is simpler: maintain the Republican coalition that gave him 65 percent in 2024.

The Map Didn't Change

There was another potential variable heading into 2026: redistricting.

President Donald Trump pushed Republican-controlled states, including Indiana, to consider new congressional maps before the midterm elections. Indiana lawmakers ultimately declined to redraw the congressional boundaries, meaning Northeast Indiana voters will cast ballots under the same 3rd District configuration used in 2024.

That decision eliminated what could have been significant uncertainty for both campaigns.

For Stutzman, it means campaigning in familiar territory. For Thompson, it means confronting a district whose recent voting history already demonstrates the magnitude of her challenge.

What Hoosier Enquirer Will Be Watching

The race deserves attention even if Stutzman begins as the clear favorite.

The first question is Fort Wayne turnout. Thompson needs an exceptional performance in the district's population center.

The second is whether economic concerns overcome party identification. Housing costs, grocery prices, health-care expenses, interest rates and employment will give both candidates opportunities to argue that national policies have direct consequences in Northeast Indiana.

The third is whether Thompson can significantly outperform the Democratic Party's 2024 showing. Stutzman's 65-percent victory provides a useful benchmark. Merely improving upon it would demonstrate movement; actually threatening Stutzman would require something much more dramatic.

Finally, the race provides another test of whether Northeast Indiana remains as firmly Republican as its recent election results suggest.

For decades, Republicans have treated Indiana's 3rd District as home territory. Democrats have periodically fielded credible candidates, but the underlying arithmetic has remained daunting.

On November 3, Kelly Thompson will try to change that arithmetic. Marlin Stutzman will try to demonstrate that nothing fundamental has changed at all.

For now, Stutzman begins the fall as the substantial favorite. But the voters of Fort Wayne and Northeast Indiana—not Washington strategists or partisan ratings—will have the final word.